Week 20 on-chain data: Institutional investment interest returns, waiting for good news on Ethereum ETF

Original title: "A large number of over 10 million US dollars in exchange purchase orders appeared. Has the interest of OTC institutions returned? | WTR 5.20"

Original source: WTR Research Institute

Review of this week

This week from June 13 to June 20, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $67,700 and the lowest price was close to $60,610, with a fluctuation range of about 11%.
Observing the chip distribution map, there are a large number of chips traded around 63,000, which will have a certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:
1. 59000-63000 is about 1.1 million coins;
2. 64000-68000 is about 930,000 coins;
• The probability of not falling below 57000~61000 in the short term is 82%;
• The probability of not rising below 71000～74000 in the short term is 67%.

Important news

Economic news

1. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States this week was 222,000, higher than the expected 220,000. The easing of the job market and the resumption of the downward trend of inflation have increased the possibility of a rate cut in September.
2. Fed's Williams is more optimistic about inflation than traders. Williams expects inflation to fall to 2.5% by the end of this year (market expectations are 3.05%). If Williams' prediction is correct, it means the Fed may cut interest rates earlier than the market expects.
3. Fed's Bostic said: Thank you for the cooling of the latest CPI report, and will pay attention to the data in May and June to ensure that the data will not reverse. It may be appropriate to cut interest rates before the end of the year.
4. Analyst Jacob Mitchell said that if you put the inflation data together with the retail sales data earlier this week, it is a considerable weakness.
5. Bank of America data showed: In the latest week, the net outflow of U.S. money funds was $3.7 billion; the net outflow of inflation-protected bonds was $700 million, the largest in 9 weeks; the stock market inflow was $11.9 billion; and the cryptocurrency inflow was $200 million.
6. After the release of the US CPI data for April, several major Wall Street banks released their latest research reports to comment on the data. JPMorgan Chase said that inflation is returning to a downward track and still believes that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in July.
7. Morgan Stanley said that they expect inflation to cool down further in the future, especially in the second half of the year, and still believe that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in September this year.
8. Goldman Sachs said that they maintain their expectation that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in July, and the Fed will move forward at the pace of cutting interest rates once a quarter thereafter.

Crypto Ecosystem News

1. The U.S. Senate voted 60 to 38 to reject the controversial crypto asset accounting regulations of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
2. Yorke Rhodes, head of digital transformation, blockchain and cloud supply chain at Microsoft, said that with the advancement of encryption and artificial intelligence technology, agents that combine the power of the two can be created, and currently only the surface of cryptocurrency and AI has been touched.
3. The Swiss Federal Council issued a consultation document, planning to adopt the Global Cryptocurrency Tax Reporting Standard (CARF), expanding Switzerland's progressive cryptocurrency market supervision, which will help maintain the credibility of the Swiss financial center.
4. May 23 and May 24 are the deadlines for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to decide whether to approve the spot ETH ETF applications submitted by VanEck and ArkInvest/21Shares respectively.
5. Morgan Stanley holds $269.9 million in spot BTC ETFs. Morgan Stanley is also one of many global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) that have disclosed their investments in spot BTC ETFs. Other banks include Royal Bank of Canada, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, BNP Paribas and UBS Group.
6. Balchunas said that the purchase of Belgrade IBIT by the U.S. Family Pension Fund in the first quarter is different from the past and is a good sign.

Long-term insights: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural changes/neutral state
Medium-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situation we will face
Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of certain directions and certain events occurring under certain conditions

Long-term insights

• Expenditure of long-term and short-term participants
• Total spot selling pressure
• Large net positions on exchanges
• US crypto ETFs

(Figure below) Long-term and short-term participants’ expenditures)

Large expenditures (selling) when reaching the threshold in the green range box will generally suppress prices to a certain extent.
Even causing stage tops and cycle tops.
Currently, it has not reached the high and warning positions.

(Total spot selling pressure in the figure below)

The red range of total spot selling pressure generally implies a relatively low amount of selling pressure, and most of them in the market usually show the bottom of the market stage.
Currently, it has left the low selling pressure range, but the amount of market selling pressure has not increased.

（Figure below: Large net positions on exchanges）

The large inflows and outflows on exchanges show that the market has had a large outflow in recent days, which means that large-scale participants have generated more buying chips.
Compared to the sluggish phenomenon in the previous two weeks, it is a good sign.

（Figure below: US crypto ETF）

The US ETF is still in positive value, which shows that US institutions and participants have become interested in the current price of cryptocurrencies, which may be related to some macro reasons.
And from the large net positions, there is a certain correlation between ETFs and net positions, which means that large buy orders are caused by ETFs, and a single order of more than 10 million US dollars means more direct purchases by over-the-counter institutions.

Mid-term exploration

• Whale comprehensive score model
• Whale exchange net position
• Network sentiment positivity
• Incremental model

(Figure below: Whale comprehensive score model)

The situation of whales remains at the "high" level,
and the overall situation may still be in a good state.

（Figure below: Net position of whale exchanges）

The whales have reduced their deposits to exchanges, which has increased the pressure on the market.
Currently, the whales are withdrawing a small amount of coins, and the potential selling pressure in the market has been alleviated to a certain extent.

（Figure below: Positive network sentiment）

The network sentiment has been slightly repaired, and the recent state may have improved.

（Figure below: Incremental model）

The incremental model shows that the supply of short-term participants has rebounded and is currently stagnant and suspended.
The overall situation may have improved.
From today's situation, the market has passed the stage of the largest increase, and the next stage of growth may require an increase in the increase.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk coefficient
• Option intention transaction ratio
• Derivatives trading volume
• Option implied volatility
• Profit and loss transfer volume
• New addresses and active addresses
• Bingtangcheng Exchange net position
• Yitai Exchange net position
• High-weight selling pressure
• Global purchasing power status
• Stablecoin exchange net position
• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives rating: Risk factor is in the danger zone. Derivatives risk increases.

(Figure below: Derivatives risk factor)

The risk factor fell from the neutral zone last week to the danger zone this week, indicating that the current market may continue to fluctuate in this price range, and the probability of short squeeze is low.

(Figure below: Option intention transaction ratio)

Option trading volume has increased slightly, and the proportion of put options is at a relatively low level.

(Figure below: Derivatives trading volume)

Derivatives trading volume is at a low level.

（The figure below shows the implied volatility of options）

The implied volatility has dropped slightly.

Sentimental status rating: neutral to bullish

（The figure below shows the profit and loss transfer volume）

The current short-term holder cost line is around 61K, and this small rebound has also brought back the market's positive sentiment (blue line).

（The figure below shows the new addresses and active addresses）

The new and active addresses are at a low level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: BTC has a large outflow, ETH has a small inflow accumulation, and the overall selling pressure is low.

（Figure below: Net positions of Bingtangcheng Exchange）

The overall net positions of BTC exchanges have accumulated a large amount of outflows, and the net positions in the exchanges continue to decline.

（Figure below: Net positions of ETH Exchange）

The net positions of ETH exchanges have accumulated a small amount of inflows. It is possible that some chips are waiting for the news of the approval of the gaming ETF.

（Figure below: High-weight selling pressure）

The number of new and active addresses is at a low level.

Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and stablecoin purchasing power is basically flat.

(Global purchasing power status in the figure below)

Currently, the purchasing power in the Americas has recovered slightly, but the purchasing power in Asia and Europe is still in a state of loss. But overall, the purchasing power in the Americas is dominant.

(USDT exchange net position in the figure below)

USDT net position is generally flat.

Off-chain transaction data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000.

(The figure below is the Coinbase off-chain data)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60000, 62000, and 63000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 68000, 70000, and 72000.

(The figure below is the Binance off-chain data)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60000, 61000, 63000, and 66000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 68000, 70000, and 72000.

（Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below）

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60,000, 64,000, and 65,000;
There is a willingness to sell at prices around 68,000.

Summary of this week

Summary of news:

1. As mentioned in the weekly report last month, the market will enter a repair phase in May, and the market has already seen a relative repair.
2. Concerns about "secondary inflation" in the United States have eased, economic indicators and CPI are weak, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year is emerging.
3. The U.S. stock index hit a new high, and the crypto rebounded and repaired 10 points. With the weakness of U.S. employment and economic indicators, it is expected that inflation will be difficult to pick up in the later period, and discussions about interest rate cuts will increase.
4. Market support gradually strengthens until the rate cut is fully priced in, and as the rate cut progresses from 5.5 to 2.5, the market will fully digest the rate cut to 2.5.
5. Even before the reversal to the "expectation of no more rate cuts", the capital market and risk market will form relatively obvious support before this, completing this relatively long period of easing.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. Judging from the total spot selling pressure, the market selling pressure is not high;
2. The exchange has generated many large buy orders exceeding 10 million US dollars. After comparing and analyzing the US stock ETF, this part of the large buy orders may come from direct purchases by OTC institutions.

• Market tone:
Institutional interest may gradually rise, and support will gradually become stronger.

Medium-term exploration on the chain:

1. The whales are still in a good scoring state;
2. The whales are reducing the pressure in the market;
3. The sentiment in the market has recovered;
4. The incremental volume in the market has recovered slightly.

• Market tone:
Improvement
There are signs of contraction in the market, and the whales are exerting pressure to contract, which may temporarily ease the deterioration of the market.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The risk factor is in the danger zone, and the risk is increasing.
2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively low.
3. Market sentiment rating: neutral to bullish.
4. The net position of the exchange as a whole shows a large outflow of BTC, a small inflow of ETH, and a low overall selling pressure.
5. Global purchasing power has recovered slightly, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has remained basically the same.
6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at 65,000; there is a willingness to sell at 70,000
7. The probability of not falling below 57,000~61,000 in the short term is 82%; among them, the probability of not rising below 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 67%.

• Market tone:
Market sentiment is neutral to positive, the purchasing power level has rebounded slightly this week, and the market selling pressure is relatively low.
Although the current price may face certain resistance in the short term based on the risk coefficient of the core indicator, the probability of a sharp decline in the market is low when other indicators are combined and the cost line of short-term holders has risen to around 61K. In addition, ETH-related news is approaching this week, so you can wait and gamble in the short term.

Risk Tips:
The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have any directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

This article comes from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

　　Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. See Risk Warning.