The launch did not reach the "US$1 billion market value" target, what are the catalysts for the next wave of Rune hype?

Original author: Ignas｜DeFi Research

Original translation: 0xFacai, BlockBeats

Editor's note: On May 20, Casey, founder of Ordinals, posted a message on the X platform in response to the fact that the market value of Runes did not reach $1 billion: "Sorry, guys, it's over. Please pay attention to the next Hell Money podcast, where I will commit seppuku, and then Erin will behead me to end my pain." (Hell Money podcast is a Bitcoin-related podcast recorded by Casey) Before that, Casey joked that if "the market value of Runes ecosystem does not reach $1 billion within a month of its launch, he will commit seppuku himself."

Since the beginning of the year, Runes has been one of the most watched narratives and protocols in the Bitcoin ecosystem, but after Runes went online, its market performance has not been as expected. But despite this, well-known crypto KOLs and researchers have turned more optimistic about Runes at this time. What is his reason? What are the catalysts after the Runes market?

The following is the original text of Ignas:

The launch of the Runes protocol ended up being a "buy news, sell news" event. However, despite this, the Runes community is still strong, and the team focused on BTCFi is also continuing to build. I believe that it will take a little spark to ignite the fire of Runes hype again. Here are some potential catalysts in the future:

1. List on CEX

The first short-term catalyst is the listing of Runes tokens on mainstream CEX. Kraken and Binance have recently released research reports on Runes. Kraken even hinted that Runes will be listed on their trading platform.

2.BTC Soft Fork

Currently, the trading experience of Runes is not much different from BRC20 (although Magic Eden has made some UI improvements). But Bitcoin soft forks like OP_CAT (or hype based on this) can bring major improvements to Bitcoin L2, smart contracts, and all BTCFi spaces.

3. Runes USDC/USDT

Another catalyst for BTCFi growth could be the launch of USDC or USDT in Runes on Bitcoin. Circle/Tether could pre-mine trillions of Rune tokens and issue/redeem them on demand. The demand for stablecoins in the Bitcoin ecosystem is low at the moment, but will increase as dApps such as Bitcoin AMM, lending, etc. improve their user experience.

Besides these, there are many other new catalysts for FOMO that will eventually appear in unexpected places. I was previously pessimistic about the launch of the Runes protocol, but now, I am increasingly bullish on Runes.

I am waiting for the fifth wave of BTCFi. I believe it will come soon, as narratives based on technological innovations tend to set off multiple waves, and BTCFi is one of the hottest zero-to-one innovations in this cycle.

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　　Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. See Risk Warning.