An inventory of institutions’ predictions on BTC’s subsequent trend: Will the price double or halve?

Original title: "3-minute quick view of Bitcoin's future market view: moving towards... in the shock?"

Original author: Wenser, Odaily Planet Daily

Since Bitcoin completed its fourth halving on April 20, the price of Bitcoin has entered a shock range again, falling to around US$56,500 on May 1, and is currently reported at around US$62,800.

The halving event and the expected "Rune fever" did not bring new growth points to Bitcoin's price trend. Regarding the subsequent rise and fall of Bitcoin, market views have recently diverged again. Based on the previously published article "BTC Completes the Fourth Halving in History, How Do Various Institutions Predict the Future Market?", Odaily Planet Daily will briefly sort out the views on Bitcoin's trend again for readers' reference.

Positive view: Rising is still the main theme

SkyBridge Capital: BTC market value will eventually exceed gold

On April 18, Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of SkyBridge Capital, said in an interview with CNBC that Bitcoin's market value will eventually exceed the valuation of gold (US$16 trillion). Bitcoin is an unprecedented high-quality asset in human history over the past 5,000 years. He said that Bitcoin still has a long way to go to catch up with gold's US$16 trillion market value, but he believes that as regulators recognize Bitcoin, the gap will narrow over time.

Bitwise: A firm BTC price bull

On April 23, the third day after the end of Bitcoin's halving, Bitwise Asset Management reiterated its bullish view on Bitcoin and expected Bitcoin to perform well in the next 12 months.

Bitwise researcher Ryan Rasmussen said, “After the halving, what has historically happened to miners is that there has been some consolidation across the industry. Some miners are not prepared for the changes in mining economics after the halving. From a price perspective, what we usually see is that the year before the halving and the year after the halving are the best years for Bitcoin in a three- or four-year cycle, and this has happened. We definitely had a good year before the halving. We rebounded from the lows in 2022, had a great 2023, and we had a good start in 2024. I do think we will continue to test new highs in 2024 and the next year after the halving. ”

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan made a bold prediction about market changes before Bitcoin's fifth halving (expected to take place in April 2028). He believes that "during the next halving, Bitcoin's market volatility will decrease, portfolio allocation and ETF fund flows will increase, central banks in some countries will participate, and Bitcoin's target price will be at least $250,000."

Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley predicts that wealth management companies will increase their holdings of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This prediction is made as Bitcoin ETFs are expected to get a bigger boost after the halving.

Jan3 CEO: BTC price is expected to reach $1 million

On April 26, Jan3 CEO Samson Mow believed that the recent halving event coupled with the surge in demand for Bitcoin spot ETFs, when the supply shock meets the demand shock, may trigger the emergence of the Omega candle pattern, which is expected to push the Bitcoin price to the $1 million milestone.

Luxor releases Q1 report: BTC price will recover within five months

On May 2, the mining pool and computing power market Luxor released its first quarter report for 2024, which pointed out that according to the data that computing power forward futures (essentially futures contracts, although they are traded over the counter rather than on exchanges) are premium, the Bitcoin price will recover within five months, and the price has bottomed out at least in the short term. On May 1, the Bitcoin computing power price fell to a historical low of $44.43/PH/day.

Bitcoin hashrate price data

TD Cowen: BTC prices may rise in May

On May 7, TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza said that Bitcoin prices may have great potential for growth in May, and Michael Saylor's company MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock is expected to rise sharply by the end of the year. He said that May 15 is the deadline for institutional investment managers to submit Form 13-F to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. If more companies purchase newly approved spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the first quarter, it will indicate that Bitcoin has received further institutional recognition. In addition, the SEC's possible rejection of the Ethereum ETF will also attract a lot of capital to Bitcoin, thereby generating incremental demand.

Analyst PlanB: BTC price will reach $500,000 in 2028

On May 7, PlanB posted on the X platform that the average price of Bitcoin in the halving cycle from 2020 to 2024 is $34,000, slightly lower than the $55,000 predicted by the S2F model in 2019, but still within the normal range, considering that the Bitcoin price was less than $4,000 when the prediction was made. The modified S2F model using the new data shows similar parameters and results: Bitcoin price will reach $500,000 in 2024-2028 and $4 million in 2028-2032.

Pantera Capital: BTC price will reach 117,000 in 2025

On May 9, Pantera Capital released its prediction of Bitcoin price in the latest Pantera Fund V launch letter, predicting that Bitcoin price will reach $117,000 in August 2025. The letter stated that in the blockchain letter released in November 2022, it updated the analysis of the impact of BTC price since the halving in 2013, and finally predicted that BTC will rise to $117,000 in August 2025.

It also stated that in previous halvings, the average rebound time before and after the halving was almost the same. There is a similarity between the cycles. The rebound before the halving in 2024 lasted 515 days, only one day more than the 514 days before the halving in 2020. At the same time, based on this model, the Pantera Bitcoin Fund has almost doubled on average in 11 years.

It is worth mentioning that Pantera Capital allegedly deleted the message later. The latest content on its official website is an article about the Ton ecosystem published on May 8.

Jack Dorsey: BTC price may reach at least $1 million in 2030

On May 9, Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey said in an interview that by 2030, the price of Bitcoin may reach at least $1 million, adding that its value may grow further from then on. He pointed out that the price of Bitcoin is not actually the most interesting aspect of Bitcoin, but the collaborative nature of the ecosystem and the way it incentivizes collective efforts to enhance the network.

QCP Capital: BTC prices may be affected by political factors

On May 10, QCP Capital released an analysis that the US election will end in November this year. Historically, the market tends to be optimistic about the election. Presidential candidate Trump has been making cryptocurrency-friendly proposals, which may become a bullish factor in the cryptocurrency market. In addition, unless the Federal Reserve explicitly rules out the possibility of rate cuts or hints at rate hikes, the market seems to continue to digest the impact of rate cuts, and these expectations may maintain the market's bullish tone for some time.

In addition, QCP Capital analysts previously stated that Bitcoin risk reversals have turned for the better, and call options are now more expensive than put options. This shows investors' bullish sentiment because they are willing to pay more for options that benefit from Bitcoin's rise than for options that prevent price declines.

Japanese listed company Metaplanet: Bitcoin has been used as a strategic reserve asset

On May 13, Metaplanet, a Japanese listed company, issued an announcement announcing its strategic transformation of financial management. Metaplanet has used Bitcoin as its strategic reserve asset to cope with Japan's continued economic pressures, especially high government debt levels, long-term negative real interest rates, and the resulting weakness of the yen.

Metaplanet's strategy clearly prioritizes a Bitcoin-first, Bitcoin-only approach, and may use long-term yen liabilities and regular stock issuance as strategic financial options to continuously accumulate more Bitcoin rather than retain the increasingly weak yen. This approach aims to increase the value of each Bitcoin and consolidate shareholder value in the long run. In April, Metaplanet purchased approximately $6.25 million worth of Bitcoin.

Opposite view: Decline is the hard rule

Senior trader: BTC price may fall back to 30,000 or even lower

On April 26, veteran trader Peter Brandt wrote that Bitcoin price may have peaked in the current bull market cycle when it hit a new high of $73,835, and expected it to fall back to around $30,000 or even the low of 2021. He attributed this expected pullback to a phenomenon known as exponential decay, which he believes will affect the recent high Bitcoin price, and in the long run, such a decline may be "the most favorable thing."

Blog article screenshot

Standard Chartered Bank: BTC price may fall back to 30,000

On May 1, Standard Chartered Bank said that as the price of Bitcoin fell below the $60,000 mark, it may fall further to around $50,000. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, said, "The price of Bitcoin fell below $60,000 and has now reopened the path to the $50,000-$52,000 range. The driving factors seem to be a combination of cryptocurrency-specific and broader macro factors."

He also said that concerns about cryptocurrencies include five consecutive days of outflows from the US Bitcoin spot ETF and the poor market response to the launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in Hong Kong. It is particularly important to note that as the US Bitcoin spot ETF continues to experience outflows, the average purchase price of the ETF is currently below $58,000, and there is a risk of liquidation. "More than half of the spot ETF positions are in a loss-making state, so the risk that some of these positions may be liquidated must also be considered."

10x Research: Insist on a bearish judgment on BTC prices after halving

Crypto research institution 10x Research posted on the X platform that it continues to insist on a bearish judgment on Bitcoin after halving. In addition, since the halving, the inflow of stablecoins has almost zero growth, and the leverage ratio of Bitcoin futures contracts has also dropped significantly, which are all based on supporting its judgment. Previously, the research institution also stated that when Bitcoin undergoes a triangular consolidation, investors should pay attention to potential "fake dip" situations. Bitcoin's relative strength has fallen back to a low of 40% in this adjustment, which is similar to Bitcoin's three adjustments since the beginning of 2023.

In addition, in response to the DTCC's announcement that any ETF or other investment vehicle that includes Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies as an underlying investment will not give collateral value, 10x Research said that Bitcoin is setting lower price highs - a new downtrend seems to be in place, which is where the DTCC statement may have an impact.

Neutral view: shocks will be the new normal

Arthur Hayes: BTC prices will fluctuate between $60,000 and $70,000 until August

On May 2, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes pointed out in his blog post that the Federal Reserve decided to reduce the pace of balance sheet reduction from $95 billion per month to $60 billion, which is essentially equivalent to adding $35 billion in liquidity per month. At the same time, given the current fiscal forecast, the Treasury Department is expected to issue additional short-term Treasury bills with maturities of 4 weeks, 6 weeks and 8 weeks in the coming days to ensure sufficient liquidity to meet cash needs for one week around the end of May. This move is expected to bring additional US dollar liquidity to the market.

In addition, after the bankruptcy of Republic First Bank, a small US bank, the FDIC used the insurance fund to ensure the interests of all depositors in order to avoid a run on deposits. This means that the US authorities have essentially added $6.7 trillion in contingent liabilities to the banking system throughout the country, and these liabilities will be funded by the additional printing of money.

He believes that the above factors will continue to inject US dollar liquidity into the market and reduce the downward pressure on cryptocurrencies. Although the market may not react to this immediately, it is expected that prices will bottom out, fall and start to slowly rise. He predicts that Bitcoin may have bottomed out near $58,600, and will return to above $60,000, and then consolidate in the $60,000-70,000 range before August. In addition, he also said that he would use this wave of rebound to release USDe pledges and buy high Beta altcoins at the bottom.

Conclusion: Long-term bullish, bull market may not end

Combining the above views, we can draw the following conclusions in stages:

In the long run, if the time scale is extended to years, both industry institutions and individuals are still bullish on the price of Bitcoin;

In the short term, the price of Bitcoin will be affected by the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the US election, and whether the Ethereum ETF is passed or not;

From May to August, the price of Bitcoin may slowly bottom out in the shock, and then wait for more market news and policy factors to enter the next stage of the market.

As the Bitcoin spot ETF is approaching the half-year period and more than a month after the Bitcoin halving event, perhaps we still need more patience and "let the bullet fly for a while".

For more information about the views of institutions and individuals on the future trend of Bitcoin prices, Odaily Planet Daily will continue to follow up and update.

Original link

　　Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. See Risk Warning.