Bitcoin price risks 1-week lows as US GDP sparks 'stagflation' woes

Bitcoin ( BTC ) fell below $62,000 into the April 25 Wall Street open as “stagflationary” United States macro data unsettled markets.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

Fed rate cuts edge further away on GDP print

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked new multi-day lows of $62,785 on Bitstamp.

Markets opened to troubled sentiment after U.S. Q1 GDP came in significantly lower than expected at 1.6%.

At the same time, prices rose by more than anticipated, and reactions highlighted the difficult task of taming inflation ahead of the Federal Reserve.

Source: Holger Zschaepitz

“If 1.6% is the final reading, it will end 6 STRAIGHT quarters of 2%+ growth. However, we still have not had 2 consecutive quarters with declining GDP since Q2 2022,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of a reaction on X (formerly Twitter).

“Is the economy beginning to weaken?”

Kobeissi additionally noted the surprising nature of the GDP data, which came in at nearly 50% lower than a forecast by Goldman Sachs.

“What does the Fed do when inflation is rising but the economy is weakening? If you cut rates, inflation will skyrocket. If you raise rates, economy crashes. Not exactly the definition of a ‘soft landing,’” it continued .

Markets were already decreasing the odds of a loosening of economic policy by the Fed on the day, no longer fully pricing in an interest rate cut earlier than December.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed just a 6.3% chance of a cut coming at the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, scheduled for May 1.

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

Bullish BTC price targets persist

Bitcoin thus followed U.S. equities — and in particular, tech stocks — downhill, struggling to maintain ground reclaimed the week prior after a geopolitically-induced dip below $60,000.

Not everyone, however, was gearing up for losses.

In his latest X post, popular trader Crypto Chase suggested that BTC/USD could put in more upside to top out at $68,000.

“IMO the job on the upside is not finished. I'm already long $ETH from 3100, but this is where I'd be bidding BTC targeting 68K~,” part of X commentary stated .

Zooming out , fellow trader Crypto Tony likewise called for new macro highs to come before more consolidatory price action.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Crypto Tony/X

For analyst Caleb Franzen, meanwhile, the short-term holder (STH) realized price, currently at $59,530, formed the definitive line in the sand.

STH realized price refers to the aggregate price at which STH entities — wallets holding coins for 155 or less — last moved them. It has functioned almost without fail as market support since the end of the 2022 bear market.

“If BTC falls below STHRP, then I'll get bearish,” Franzen concluded .

Bitcoin STH realized price. Source: Caleb Franzen/X

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