Can On-Chain Resilience of Cardano (ADA) Lead to $1 Before Ethereum (ETH) Retests Yearly High?

Table of Contents

• Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis Ahead of Potential BlackRock’s ETF Approval
• Ethereum (ETH) Bullish Outlook
• Ethereum (ETH) Bearish Outlook
• Cardano (ADA) Technical Analysis In Light of Positive On-Chain Data
• Cardano (ADA) Bullish Outlook
• Cardano (ADA) Bearish Outlook
• Final Thoughts

As the holiday season approaches and the crypto market anticipates the US Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, a notable tension permeates the air. Fueled by CPI data and the potential for increased rates which are already at a 22-year peak, the looming uncertainty has prompted many to liquidate their positions, capitalizing on gains from the recent crypto rally. This cautious atmosphere casts a shadow over major players like Bitcoin which, despite a slighT price correction, still maintains a strong position above the $40,000 mark, holding a 52% market dominance. Interestingly, if BTC stabilizes around this level, it can signal a bullish trend for altcoins .

Ethereum (ETH) currently teeters at a crucial juncture of $2,130, a key support-resistance flip point, poised for a significant rebound in the event of market recovery. Meanwhile, Cardano (ADA) experiences a 4% price dip, reflecting the broader market's apprehension. Amidst this uncertainty, the question arises: how will these dynamics shift with the Fed's impending decision?

Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis Ahead of Potential BlackRock’s ETF Approval

Source: TradingView

Ethereum (ETH), currently oscillating between its first support level at $1,843 and the first resistance level at $2,201, presents a nuanced picture in the realm of technical analysis as BlackRock's proposed spot ETH ETF sets the stage for a deeper understanding of its market dynamics. BlackRock, an absolute giant in the financial world with a staggering $8.5 trillion in AUM, is on the brink of directing a wave of institutional interest and investment towards Ethereum (ETH) – a major game changer for the asset's value, especially considering BlackRock's influential regulatory connections and its extensive network of financial advisors. At the same time, ETH is continuously working on boosting its transaction speeds primarily through innovative layer-2 solutions like Optimism, Arbitrum, Base, and zkSync Era , showing its strong commitment to improving the network efficiency.

Ethereum (ETH) Bullish Outlook

In the bullish scenario, some technical indicators of Ethereum (ETH) suggest a potential upward trajectory. The Simple Moving Average (SMA) for 10 days stands at $2,278, higher than its current trading range, indicating a possible bullish sentiment in the short term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 51.8 is neutral, suggesting that ETH is neither overbought, nor oversold, providing room for an upward movement. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) level at 72 also supports this positive outlook. If institutional investors respond favorably to BlackRock's entry into Ethereum (ETH), and if the proposed ETF materializes, it could lead to a significant influx of capital, potentially driving the price towards the second resistance level at $2,347 or even the third resistance mark at $2,705.

Ethereum (ETH) Bearish Outlook

In the bearish case, the lingering issues with layer-2 solutions and the high transaction fees could dampen investor enthusiasm. The current SMA for 100 days is $1,825, which is below the first support level, indicating that if the price starts to decline, it may find significant support around this threshold. Additionally, the Stochastic %K at 47.5 and the Average Directional Index (ADI) at 37.5 suggest a lack of strong directional momentum, which could lead to a sideways or downward movement. If institutional interest wanes or if regulatory hurdles emerge for BlackRock’s Ethereum-focused products, ETH could witness a pullback towards its second support level at $1,632, or even the lower defense line at $1,274.

Cardano (ADA) Technical Analysis In Light of Positive On-Chain Data

Source: TradingView

The technical analysis of Cardano (ADA), currently poised between the primary support level at $0.442 and the first resistance level at $0.698, should be contextualized within the recent on-chain developments reported by Santiment. Despite experiencing a significant outflow of small-sized whale investors in mid-November, where 98% of whales holding between 1-10 ADA coins exited the market, the asset has shown remarkable resilience. This exodus, a potential sign of capitulation, surprisingly coincided with a more than 65% surge in the Cardano (ADA) price, suggesting a counterintuitive strength in the face of adversity. This resilience is further underscored by the robust network activity , with over $400 million in TVL and a 186% increase in transaction volume over the past week. This backdrop of strong fundamental indicators, combined with substantial purchases by large-sized whales, paints a complex picture for the future of ADA.

Cardano (ADA) Bullish Outlook

The Cardano (ADA) price’s resilience in the face of significant retail investor exits aligns with its promising technical indicators. The SMAs (10-day at $0.572 and 100-day at $0.454) are favorable, indicating a short-term bullish trend. The RSI at 55.05 supports this sentiment, suggesting room for growth. Additionally, the marginal bullish crossover in MACD at 0.01 and the positive Momentum at 0.041 could signify an impending upward movement. If ADA sustains above these SMA levels, it might approach and potentially breach the resistance at $0.698, with $0.801 and $1.057 being the next targets.

Cardano (ADA) Bearish Outlook

Conversely, the bearish scenario considers the potential impact of continued retail capitulation, which might undermine the positive sentiment despite the recent strength of Cardano (ADA). The Stochastic %K at 47.24 and the low ADI at 23.95 suggest a lack of strong bullish momentum. If ADA fails to hold above the 10-day SMA and particularly dips below the 100-day SMA, it could signal a bearish shift, possibly testing lower supports at $0.289 and even $0.033. This scenario becomes more plausible, if the broader market reacts negatively to the ongoing retail exit, despite the counterbalancing influence of large whale purchases and strong network fundamentals.

Final Thoughts

As the holiday season draws near, Bitcoin remains a dominant force, maintaining its position above $40,000, despite recent corrections – this stability could herald a promising phase for altcoins. Ethereum (ETH), with its potential ETF approval on the horizon and ongoing network enhancements, is caught between technical thresholds, balancing bullish prospects against bearish risks. Supported by key indicators like the SMA and RSI, the technical analysis suggests a possibility for upward movement, but also acknowledges the challenges of layer-2 complexities and regulatory uncertainties.

The resilience of Cardano (ADA) in the face of significant retail investor exits and strong on-chain data is noteworthy. The asset's ability to withstand pressure and even grow in the face of adversity points towards a potentially bullish future; however, the threat of continued retail capitulation and a lack of strong directional momentum as suggested by the Stochastic %K and ADI, cannot be ignored, posing a risk to its current valuation. The coming weeks will show whether both ETH and ADA sustain their current valuations and possibly break new grounds or if they succumb to the pressures of a rapidly changing market landscape.